Should you ever foul at the buzzer?

In the 2005 Conference-USA Tournament game, Memphis player Darius Washington Jr. was fouled at the buzzer during a three-point shot. With his team down by two to Louisville, he stepped up to the foul line for three shots.

In this lesson, students will compute the probabilities of a win, loss, or tie for Memphis. They will also determine whether or not it was smart for Louisville to foul at the buzzer, and will investigate the conditions when fouling at the buzzer in a close game makes sense.

- Calculate the probability of a win, loss, or tie when a player has three free throws and his team is down by two, and then after the player has taken his first and second shots
- Calculate the conditional probability of a win or loss for the defensive team, given that they foul or don't foul

Land of the Delta Blues