HSIII.6 Inferences (S4)

Beginning Lesson

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Driving Question

When should NFL teams go for it on fourth down? Students use quadratic functions to develop a model of expected points. They then apply this model to determine when teams should punt the ball, and more importantly, when they shouldn’t.

Topic: Building Functions (BF), Interpreting Functions (IF), Using Probability to Make Decisions (MD)

Middle Lessons

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Basketball IQ

In basketball, which shot should you take? Students use probability and expected value to determine how much 3-point and 2-point shots are really "worth" to different NBA players.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP)
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Happy Meal

How much would it cost to get all the toys in a Happy Meal? Students use trials, probabilities, and expected value to determine how many meals it takes to get a complete set of Happy Meal toys and debate whether McDonald’s should allow customers to pay a fee to choose their own figurine.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP), Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data (ID), Making Inferences and Justifying Conclusions (IC)
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The Waiting Game

How many people should you date before you settle down? Students use modeling with probability distributions to come up with a rule to try to maximize their relationship happiness.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP), Making Inferences and Justifying Conclusions (IC)

End Lesson

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Shuffle

What does it mean for a playlist to be "random?" Students use probability to explore the idea of randomness, as well as the patterns that can emerge from random processes like shuffles.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP), Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data (ID)