ALGII.6 Probability

Beginning Lesson

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Oh, Craps!

What is the likelihood of winning at craps? Students learn the rules of the popular casino game, and use probabilities to determine how likely players are to win big (or go broke).

Topic: Congruence (CO), Modeling with Geometry (MG)

Middle Lessons

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Bracketology

What’s the best strategy for creating a March Madness bracket? Students use probability to discover that it’s basically impossible to correctly predict every game in the tournament. Nevertheless, that doesn’t stop people from trying.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP), Creating Equations (CED), Linear, Quadratic, and Exponential Models (LE)
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Bumpy Flight

How many tickets should airlines sell? Students use probability and expected value to investigate the overbooking phenomenon and why airlines make the decisions they do.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP)
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Golden Gatekeepers

Did UC Berkeley discriminate against women? Students use frequency tables, conditional probability, and Simpson's Paradox to explore the (un?)fairness of college admissions.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP), Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data (ID)
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Oddsballs

When is it worth buying a Powerball ticket? Students count combinations and apply basic rules of probability and expected value to determine when the Powerball jackpot is large enough to justify the cost of playing the game.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP)
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Spin City (Retiring Version)

What is the likelihood of winning at roulette? Students use probabilities and odds to examine the betting and gameplay of roulette, including where the infamous house edge comes from.

Topic:
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Three Shots

In basketball, should you ever foul at the buzzer? Students use probabilities to determine when the defense should foul...and when they should not.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP)

End Lesson

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False Flags

How accurate should government surveillance be? Students calculate conditional probabilities to determine the likelihood of false-positives and false-negatives, and discuss the tradeoffs between safety and accuracy.

Topic: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (CP)